The municipality of Rotterdam is working on a new Traffic Circulation Plan (VCP) to make the city safer and more livable. Through traffic is directed around residential areas as much as possible instead of through them. On behalf of the municipality, we investigated what the effects of the VCP are on road safety.

Based on historical accident figures and traffic models (intensities), we determined the accident ratio per street: the number of accidents per million vehicle kilometers driven. By combining this measure with the expected traffic intensities after implementation of the VCP, we could calculate how the number of accidents is expected to develop. We distinguished between street-level accidents and intersection accidents, which resulted in a bandwidth for the expected effect.

The analysis shows that the VCP is expected to lead to a 4% to 7% reduction in the number of accidents per year. This improvement is mainly achieved because traffic shifts from vulnerable residential streets to main roads that are better designed for flow and safety. Streets such as Bergweg, Mathenesserlaan and Zaagmolenstraat benefit strongly from the measures, while on through roads such as Rochussenstraat and Westzeedijk an increase in traffic and accidents is expected. These roads are generally better prepared for this. We advised on these roads based on traffic engineering characteristics. For a number of specific streets, such as Claes de Vrieselaan and Oudedijk, additional measures are planned due to their vulnerable character.

The results support the VCP's objective of improving road safety by directing traffic to roads that are most suitable for this in terms of function and design. Our research provides the municipality of Rotterdam with a well-founded basis to take this effect into account in the further planning process.